Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗

Price fell 6.3pp from 30.8% to 24.5% over 10.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 26.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 2.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 26.5%, 72h range: 14.5%-32.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Spencer Pratt wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election; NO=he does not. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 31% to 24%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — election market
Logical Divergence: Yes — price fell despite positive incremental E signals (not Strong Divergence). ★ DIRECT (election): May 9 coverage of a new campaign video and related billboard push constitutes an E9 visibility surge (≥3 fresh pieces), while there are no D9 counters (no new polling against Pratt, no major opponent endorsements, no fundraising shock) to justify a 6.3pp drop; earlier debate-driven E9 was already priced into 31%. The move looks like an overreaction to process/noise against supportive visibility momentum, so some reversion up is likely.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.