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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗
will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election
· Brazil Presidential Election · category: Brazil, Global Elections, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Politics, World, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 091eec36-1bc6-4bbc-afdb-caa5f284c301
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
● open
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
44.5% / 50.5%
move_start
39.5%
reversal
+6.0pp
move size / hours
11.0pp / 27.5h
shape
spike
72h range
38.5%—50.5% (Δ12.0pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 11.0pp from 39.5% to 50.5% over 27.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 44.5%, down 6.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 190 → 5
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5237
article_precursor
relevant
Cabo Gilberto mantém pressão por anistia e apoia debate da 6x1
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Brazil's Lula administration steps up measures to boost popularity - BNamericas
gnews_indirect_evidence
noise
Trump’s approval on economy hits new low; 7 in 10 expect recession next year: Poll - KTSM 9 News
gnews_mechanism
relevant
Bolsonaro appointee takes over Brazil’s election court - Valor International
gnews_indirect_evidence
noise
U.S. Congress monthly public approval rating 2022-2026 - Statista
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.8 · 13638 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Lula wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, NO=he does not; Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 40% to 50%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No Strong Divergence exists, but the price rose without any verified election-momentum signals (no fresh favorable polls, major endorsements, opponent scandal, or institutional decisions); the cited items are CONTEXT only (e.g., Bolsonaro appointee leading the election court; Lula “stepping up measures” to boost popularity) and do not satisfy or directly advance the settlement criterion of “Lula wins.” A 10pp+ spike on process-only/context news with a quick 6pp pullback is characteristic of overshoot. The move was not justified by the provided news and is likely to mean-revert lower.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL