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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 5c25e5cd-7466-4fa7-9044-970a77844ef8
· signal: 314e4795
· event: Brazil Presidential Election
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
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target
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stop
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exit
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size
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pnl $
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pnl %
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Lula wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, NO=he does not; Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 40% to 50%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No Strong Divergence exists, but the price rose without any verified ele
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 893 | 0.5600 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on U.S. political events and do not provide relevant information about Lula's chances in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
evidence news (10 items · score 4.66 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T11:05 [Mandatory] Donald Trump Reportedly Fueling Debate Over JD Vance & Marco Rubio
- 2026-05-11T17:46 [Must Read Alaska] Alaska Republican Party Elects Leadership: Warfield Wins Chair, Perry Wins Vice
- 2026-05-11T23:22 [Connecticut Public] Following credit card spending, Erin Stewart campaign rattled yet again by her mayoral records
- 2026-05-12T01:50 [KOB 4] Former New Mexico congressman Steve Pearce wins procedural vote to lead BLM
- 2026-05-12T11:44 [The National] Starmer on the brink: How a Labour leadership contest would work | The National
- 2026-05-12T18:21 [Internewscast Jour] Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Governor: A Step Toward Potential Powell Succession - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-12T19:06 [Ventura County Sta] California governor candidates lob debate jabs. The claims, explained
- 2026-05-12T22:37 [WCCB Charlotte's C] Trump's redistricting push fizzles in South Carolina Senate but wins in Missouri's top court - WCCB Charlotte
- 2026-05-13T00:47 [Denver 7 Colorado ] Trump's redistricting push fizzles in South Carolina Senate but wins in Missouri's top court
- 2026-05-13T01:52 [Nebraska Public Me] Ricketts easily wins Nebraska U.S. Senate primary
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on U.S. political events and do not provide relevant information about Lula's chances in the Brazilian presidential election.
evidence news (10 items · score 4.66 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T11:05 [Mandatory] Donald Trump Reportedly Fueling Debate Over JD Vance & Marco Rubio
- 2026-05-11T17:46 [Must Read Alaska] Alaska Republican Party Elects Leadership: Warfield Wins Chair, Perry Wins Vice
- 2026-05-11T23:22 [Connecticut Public] Following credit card spending, Erin Stewart campaign rattled yet again by her mayoral records
- 2026-05-12T01:50 [KOB 4] Former New Mexico congressman Steve Pearce wins procedural vote to lead BLM
- 2026-05-12T11:44 [The National] Starmer on the brink: How a Labour leadership contest would work | The National
- 2026-05-12T18:21 [Internewscast Jour] Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Governor: A Step Toward Potential Powell Succession - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-12T19:06 [Ventura County Sta] California governor candidates lob debate jabs. The claims, explained
- 2026-05-12T22:37 [WCCB Charlotte's C] Trump's redistricting push fizzles in South Carolina Senate but wins in Missouri's top court - WCCB Charlotte
- 2026-05-13T00:47 [Denver 7 Colorado ] Trump's redistricting push fizzles in South Carolina Senate but wins in Missouri's top court
- 2026-05-13T01:52 [Nebraska Public Me] Ricketts easily wins Nebraska U.S. Senate primary
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the outlook for Lula's candidacy.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's 2026 election prospects, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's 2026 election prospects, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines are unrelated to the Brazilian presidential election and do not impact Lula's position or the market.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.48 )
- 2026-05-13T09:31 [RadarOnline] Spencer Pratt's Viral Debate Moments Shake Up Race for L.A. Mayor
- 2026-05-13T16:17 [Breitbart] Nolte: No Good News for Spencer Pratt in First Post-Debate Poll
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the outlook for Lula's 2026 election prospects.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's 2026 election prospects, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's 2026 election prospects, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's 2026 election prospects, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information relevant to Lula's chances in the 2026 election, merely echoing existing political dynamics.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.56, "size_usd": 500.0, "target_price": 0.595, "stop_price": 0.506, "broker": "paper"}
price_reversal_stage2_candidate
{"current_drift_pp": -3.7, "mfe_peak_pp": -3.7, "hours_held": 0.026, "reward_pp_planned": 3.5, "threshold_pp": 1.75, "side_avg_now": 0.523, "entry_price": 0.56, "target_price": 0.595, "stop_price": 0.506, "side": "BUY_NO", "strategy": null, "note": "DETECT-ONLY: this would have triggered a Stage 2 re-eval under a price-reversal trigger. No action taken \u2014 observation only per 2026-05-11 detect-only scope. Revisit after 2 weeks of data."}