Kash Patel out by June 30? ↗

Price fell 9.5pp from 59.0% to 49.5% over 3h (spike). Now at 49.5%.

Days to resolution: 65 days. Theta-bleed is active: the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and the market requires a positive action (Patel being ousted) for YES to resolve. In Step 1a, there are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of resignation, firing, or formal process toward Patel's ouster. The trend is DOWN (NO more likely), and the news aligns: there is no evidence supporting imminent ouster. All news is CONTEXT, focused on resurfaced decades-old alcohol-related arrests and allegations, but these are not tied to any current official process or action toward removal. The story is plateauing: multiple outlets echo the same old disclosures, but there is no sign of escalation, new actors, or process steps. After clustering, momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. This is a classic case of a negative spike driven by reputational noise, not by a resolution-class event. Remaining space: 49.5pp. Step 3 hard rules: No news-trend conflict, not mixed, not echoing a concrete action, and theta-bleed supports continuation of the DOWN move in the absence of positive process news. No reversal triggers are present.