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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Kash Patel out by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: c49f1164-d4f8-4110-bdc0-588bfaa24d04
· signal: d423c1c3
· event: Kash Patel out by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.90
pnl %
-13.72%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 59.0% → 49.5% over 3h, cusum=-4.156. Days to resolution: 65 days. Theta-bleed is active: the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and the market requires a positive action (Patel being ousted) for YES to resolve. In Step 1a, there are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of resignation, firing, or formal process toward Pa
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 13 | 0.5100 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 13 | 0.4400 | 0.4400 → 0.4400 (1 lvl) | SL | $-0.90 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.51, "size_usd": 6.58, "target_price": 0.555, "stop_price": 0.45, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_mid": 0.555, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.44, "walk_top_size": 720.0, "walk_filled_shares": 12.9, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.44, "walk_slippage_pp": -0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.44, "side_bid": 0.44, "side_mid": 0.445, "fill_price": 0.44, "fill_shares": 12.9, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 12.9, "target_price": 0.555, "stop_price": 0.45, "entry_price": 0.51, "original_size_shares": 12.901960784313726, "fill_pnl_pct": -13.73, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.9031, "pnl_pct_mid": -12.75, "pnl_pct_top": -13.73, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -1.0, "fill_id": "e1de3cf0-72c0-435b-b9eb-19bbdf0aedab"}