Starmer out by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 22.0pp from 48.5% to 70.5% over 35.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 68.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer out (resigns/removed) by Dec 31, 2026; NO=Starmer remains in office through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=2, D=3). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 48% to 70%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; Logical Divergence exists (price rose on zero fresh E/D) and, with a 35.5h steady climb and a stale-news circuit-breaker, this looks like a starved narrative rather than new resolution. There are no ★ DIRECT events (no resignation, no formal leadership challenge/contest, no party mechanism triggered); if anything, Starmer explicitly refusing to resign and senior allies backing him are D signals, while reported internal pressure (e.g., Miliband urging a timeline, MPs calling for him to quit) is process-only and not resolution-level. Given a 22pp move on stale/process news, the spike is likely overdone and should partially mean-revert; due to the stale feed, conviction is LOW and size SMALL.