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Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗
will-paloma-valencia-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election
· Colombia Presidential Election · category: Colombia, Colombia Election, Elections, Global Elections, Main Election, Politics, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50, World, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 103148f1-28d0-44d6-b5df-ea96f17a83e2
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· MFE_GIVEBACK
·
+$1.05
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
15.7% / 12.2%
move_start
24.8%
reversal
+3.4pp
move size / hours
12.6pp / 79.5h
shape
spike
72h range
12.2%—21.9% (Δ9.7pp)
since peak
6.0h
Price fell 12.6pp from 24.8% to 12.2% over 79.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 15.7%, up 3.4pp from trough, 6.0h after the trough.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 267 → 27
quality: HIGH
tokens: 9423
article_thesis
relevant
Candidato presidencial colombiano denuncia plan para asesinarlo y pide ayuda a EE.UU.
article_thesis
relevant
El secreto de Paloma: la jugada que desvió el debate más duro contra el establecimiento
article_thesis
relevant
El Tigre y Paloma, una campaña presidencial a los coñazos
article_thesis
direct
Polymarket sacude la campaña: Valencia pierde fuerza y De la Espriella lidera la derecha - HSB NOTICIAS
article_thesis
relevant
Encuestas sin democracia
article_thesis
noise
Campaña sin debates presidenciales: ¿una ciudadanía a ciegas? | El Nuevo Siglo
article_thesis
relevant
Las propuestas en materia de salud de los tres candidatos presidenciales más opcionados
article_thesis
noise
Hoteles, transporte, publicidad y apoyos políticos, entre los gastos que no habría reportado la campaña Petro 2022, según la Fiscalía
article_antithesis
relevant
Alarma en la carrera presidencial: denuncian plan de atentado y surge polémica por rol de inteligencia
article_thesis
noise
Un presidente y un gobierno como 'jefes de campaña' | El Nuevo Siglo
article_thesis
noise
"Reconstruir a Colombia tomará más de un periodo presidencial": presidente de Fenalco
article_thesis
noise
Diana Ángel desmintió irse de Colombia si gana De la Espriella y dio fuertes argumentos; confía en triunfo de Cepeda
article_thesis
relevant
Abelardo de la Espriella denuncia supuesto plan para asesinarlo con francotirador en plena campaña
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: YES
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.7 · 16028 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Paloma Valencia wins the 2026 presidential election; NO = any other candidate wins. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 25% to 12%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No verified election-specific signals justify the drop: there are no D9 items (no credible new polls against Valencia, no major institutional endorsements for opponents), no E9/E10 clusters, and the notable pieces are derivative (articles about Polymarket’s own shift), intra-right infighting commentary, and an opponent’s alleged assassination plot—none of which satisfy or directly advance the “will win” settlement criterion. Given a 12.6pp, 79.5h decline on process/coverage-only news, this looks like narrative/flow overshoot rather than fundamentals. The move is not supported by ★ DIRECT evidence, so it should partially mean-revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
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