← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 6014acfb-236c-4c74-ba9e-061d7bb731bd
· signal: 1603bb2d
· event: Colombia Presidential Election
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+1.05
pnl %
+10.76%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Paloma Valencia wins the 2026 presidential election; NO = any other candidate wins. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 25% to 12%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No verified election-specific signals justify the
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 62 | 0.1570 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 62 | 0.1739 | 0.1740 → 0.1739 (2 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $+1.05 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ HIGH
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats to candidates and campaign dynamics that could impact voter sentiment and election outcomes.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign strength and highlight emerging threats, which could impact trader sentiment and predictions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ HIGH
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter perception and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign strength and highlight emerging threats, which could impact trader sentiment and predictions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates and strategic shifts in the campaign, which could impact voter sentiment and election dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates and strategic shifts in the campaign, which could impact voter sentiment and election dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates and strategic shifts in the campaign, which could impact voter sentiment and election dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates and campaign dynamics that could impact voter sentiment and election outcomes.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and Valencia's position.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign dynamics and potential threats, which could impact her electoral viability.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates and campaign dynamics that could impact voter sentiment and election outcomes.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign strength and highlight emerging threats, which could impact trader sentiment and predictions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats that could impact voter sentiment and candidate positioning.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign dynamics and competition, which could impact her electoral prospects.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign strength and highlight emerging threats, which could impact voter sentiment and election dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign strength and highlight emerging threats, which could impact her electoral prospects.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in campaign dynamics and potential threats to candidates, which could impact voter sentiment and election outcomes.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats to candidates and campaign dynamics, which could impact voter sentiment and election outcomes.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding threats against candidates, which could impact voter sentiment and campaign dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign dynamics and competition, which could impact her electoral prospects.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a shift in Valencia's campaign dynamics and potential threats, which could impact her electoral viability.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.157, "size_usd": 9.72, "target_price": 0.247, "stop_price": 0.066, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.174, "yes_ask": 0.185, "yes_mid": 0.1795, "yes_spread_pp": 1.1, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.174, "walk_top_size": 60.0, "walk_filled_shares": 61.91, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.1739, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.01, "side_bid_top": 0.174, "side_bid": 0.1739, "side_mid": 0.1795, "fill_price": 0.1739, "fill_shares": 61.91, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 61.91, "target_price": 0.247, "stop_price": 0.066, "entry_price": 0.157, "original_size_shares": 61.91082802547771, "fill_pnl_pct": 10.76, "fill_pnl_usd": 1.0463, "pnl_pct_mid": 14.33, "pnl_pct_top": 10.83, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -0.31, "mfe_drift_pp": 4.0, "current_drift_pp": 1.69, "hours_held": 27.54, "fill_id": "125c67ef-a4bc-4910-9219-c43043e02d35"}