Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 5.5pp from 29.5% to 24.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 24.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 27.5%, 72h range: 22.0%-36.0%]

Days to resolution: 65 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Iran agreeing to surrender enriched uranium) by a fixed deadline less than 90 days away, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete steps by Iran toward surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, nor any official agreements, proposals, or filings. The trend is DOWN (NO more likely), and the news aligns: the dominant story is the abrupt cancellation of planned US-Iran talks in Pakistan, with Trump citing "infighting" and "confusion" in Iran, and the Iranian foreign minister leaving without meeting US envoys. This is a clear process setback (D8: actor rejects/sidesteps diplomatic off-ramp), not mere rhetoric. News momentum is INTENSIFYING in the negative direction: multiple outlets confirm the same real-world event (talks canceled, no progress), and there is no offsetting positive process signal. After clustering, this is one distinct process collapse event, but it is highly relevant. Momentum signals: trend=1 (talks collapse), counter=0 (no progress, no new talks, no positive movement). Remaining space: 19pp (from 24% to 5%). Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not mixed, not plateauing—this is a fresh, concrete process setback in a theta-bleed market, so CONTINUE is allowed. No boundary cap applies (price >20%). Estimated move capped at 8pp (solid MEDIUM conviction, not HIGH, as only one distinct event).