← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 42bb8440-34d3-49ae-bf40-ac9b66695387
· signal: f474dca8
· event: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.12
pnl %
-2.00%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 29.5% → 24.0% over 1h, cusum=-5.396. Days to resolution: 65 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Iran agreeing to surrender enriched uranium) by a fixed deadline less than 90 days away, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete ste
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 8 | 0.7500 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 8 | 0.8300 | 0.8300 → 0.8300 (1 lvl) | TP | $+0.64 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.75, "size_usd": 6.03, "target_price": 0.83, "stop_price": 0.69, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.98, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 96.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.02, "walk_top_size": 50.0, "walk_filled_shares": 8.04, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.02, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.02, "side_bid": 0.02, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.02, "fill_shares": 8.04, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 8.04, "target_price": 0.83, "stop_price": 0.69, "entry_price": 0.75, "original_size_shares": 8.040000000000001, "fill_pnl_pct": -97.33, "fill_pnl_usd": -5.8692, "pnl_pct_mid": -33.33, "pnl_pct_top": -97.33, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -67.0, "fill_id": "6d0f86e7-1396-45a7-a914-21341a2f301a"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.15, "yes_ask": 0.17, "yes_mid": 0.16, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.83, "walk_top_size": 55.0, "walk_filled_shares": 8.04, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.83, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.83, "side_bid": 0.83, "side_mid": 0.84, "fill_price": 0.83, "fill_shares": 8.04, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 8.04, "target_price": 0.83, "stop_price": 0.69, "entry_price": 0.75, "original_size_shares": 8.040000000000001, "fill_pnl_pct": 10.67, "fill_pnl_usd": 0.6432, "pnl_pct_mid": 12.0, "pnl_pct_top": 10.67, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.0, "fill_id": "550d5e32-6315-4587-803a-7af2b26b0254"}