Starmer out by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price rose 21.5pp from 5.1% to 26.6% over 5.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 21.2%, down 5.4pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer leaves office by May 15, 2026; NO = he remains PM through May 15. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1 (surge to 50+ MPs calling for resignation, with three aides quitting), D=2 (Starmer vows to stay; key would-be challenger backs down to a September timetable) (priced-in: E=5, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 5% to 27%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence exists (D opposing the UP move > E, but not Strong Divergence). The fresh pressure headlines increase medium-term risk, but there is no ★ DIRECT resolution step (no resignation, no formal contest triggered, and a prominent instigator shifted to a post–May 15 timetable), which fails the market’s near-term criterion. A 21.5pp spike on process-only pressure with counter-signals about timing is disproportionate; expect mean reversion as the window to May 15 is just days away without concrete mechanism in motion.