← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: c17176aa-ee30-40ff-8aca-40ddc4c4b35b
· signal: dd1c332e
· event: Starmer out by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-54.28
pnl %
-15.51%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer leaves office by May 15, 2026; NO = he remains PM through May 15. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1 (surge to 50+ MPs calling for resignation, with three aides quitting), D=2 (Starmer vows to stay; key would-be challenger backs down to a September timetable) (priced-in: E=5, D=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 439 | 0.7970 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 439 | 0.6734 | 0.6900 → 0.6734 (7 lvl) | SL | $-54.28 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The announcement of Gordon Brown as an adviser and Starmer's resignation update indicate a significant shift in strategy and leadership dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 14.65 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-08T22:06 [Hindustan Times] UK PM Starmer says he won't resign after local elections deliver big losses for Labour party
- 2026-05-08T23:24 [Deseret News] British PM Starmer faces pressure to resign amidst substantial losses
- 2026-05-09T01:44 [World Socialist] United flight attendants vote on second contract, as Spirit collapse signals industry-wide crisis
- 2026-05-09T09:09 [The New Arab] Iran mulls US peace plan as Hormuz strikes threaten ceasefire
- 2026-05-09T13:02 [Birmingham Mail] Keir Starmer issues resignation update as he sets out plan for 'coming days'
- 2026-05-09T14:03 [Breaking News.ie] Starmer names former prime minister Gordon Brown as adviser | BreakingNews
- 2026-05-09T18:11 [News24] 'Mojtaba Khamenei active behind the scenes': US intel report confirms Iran Supreme Leader alive, shaping war strategy from...; what this means for US-Iran negotiations? - News24 World
- 2026-05-10T03:41 [i24NEWS English] US Rubio, Witkoff meet with Qatari PM in Miami amid push for Iran war ceasefire deal
- 2026-05-10T07:00 [The NEN - North Ed] Last Chance Saloon? Starmer turns to old guard following election disaster
- 2026-05-10T07:14 [ABNA English] Iran's Vatican Envoy: Pope-Rubio Meeting Aims to Contain Deepening U.S.-Vatican Rift
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The announcement of Gordon Brown as an adviser and Starmer's resignation update indicate a significant shift in strategy and leadership dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 14.65 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-08T22:06 [Hindustan Times] UK PM Starmer says he won't resign after local elections deliver big losses for Labour party
- 2026-05-08T23:24 [Deseret News] British PM Starmer faces pressure to resign amidst substantial losses
- 2026-05-09T01:44 [World Socialist] United flight attendants vote on second contract, as Spirit collapse signals industry-wide crisis
- 2026-05-09T09:09 [The New Arab] Iran mulls US peace plan as Hormuz strikes threaten ceasefire
- 2026-05-09T13:02 [Birmingham Mail] Keir Starmer issues resignation update as he sets out plan for 'coming days'
- 2026-05-09T14:03 [Breaking News.ie] Starmer names former prime minister Gordon Brown as adviser | BreakingNews
- 2026-05-09T18:11 [News24] 'Mojtaba Khamenei active behind the scenes': US intel report confirms Iran Supreme Leader alive, shaping war strategy from...; what this means for US-Iran negotiations? - News24 World
- 2026-05-10T03:41 [i24NEWS English] US Rubio, Witkoff meet with Qatari PM in Miami amid push for Iran war ceasefire deal
- 2026-05-10T07:00 [The NEN - North Ed] Last Chance Saloon? Starmer turns to old guard following election disaster
- 2026-05-10T07:14 [ABNA English] Iran's Vatican Envoy: Pope-Rubio Meeting Aims to Contain Deepening U.S.-Vatican Rift
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.797, "size_usd": 350.0, "target_price": 0.9146, "stop_price": 0.6754, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.3, "yes_ask": 0.31, "yes_mid": 0.305, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 7, "walk_top_fill": 0.69, "walk_top_size": 37.52, "walk_filled_shares": 439.15, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.6734, "walk_slippage_pp": 1.66, "side_bid_top": 0.69, "side_bid": 0.6734, "side_mid": 0.695, "fill_price": 0.6734, "fill_shares": 439.15, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 439.15, "target_price": 0.9146, "stop_price": 0.6754, "entry_price": 0.797, "original_size_shares": 439.146800501882, "fill_pnl_pct": -15.51, "fill_pnl_usd": -54.2785, "pnl_pct_mid": -12.8, "pnl_pct_top": -13.43, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -0.2, "mfe_drift_pp": -1.34, "current_drift_pp": -12.36, "hours_held": 0.47, "fill_id": "cf1d2318-484b-407d-bbcf-0749c8a693d0"}