US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 11.3pp from 29.2% to 40.5% over 16.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 38.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 23.5%, 72h range: 12.5%-40.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by May 31, 2026; NO = no signed permanent deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=5, D=3). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 29% to 40%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed. No Strong Divergence; the 16h spike lacked fresh verified E and is theta-opposed, suggesting overshoot rather than new information. Cited events (Iran reviewing a U.S. proposal; mediator optimism from Pakistan/China; Trump pausing “Project Freedom”) are process-only and do not satisfy the settlement criterion of a signed permanent deal, while counter-signals (Iranian denial of being near a deal; Trump saying it’s “too soon” to prep for signing; a hard-edged UNSC draft) temper momentum. Given a >10pp spike on process headlines with no incremental breakthrough, the move likely reverts partially.

Kill switches:
- Joint US–Iran announcement that a permanent peace agreement text is finalized and will be signed by a specific date before May 31.
- Official publication of a signed framework/“principles” document explicitly binding both sides to permanent peace terms with a stated ratification pathway before May 31.
- White House and Iranian MFA concurrently confirm all core terms (enrichment verification, sanctions relief, security guarantees) are agreed, with a scheduled signing ceremony.
- UNSC passes a resolution endorsing a US–Iran agreement with explicit acceptance from both Washington and Tehran.
- Concrete confidence-building swap plus mutual public statements that only final formalities remain before signing a permanent peace deal this month.