← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 13b60251-b03f-4834-aa0d-579a563badb2
· signal: 7c57f6ee
· event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-5.74
pnl %
-1.64%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by May 31, 2026; NO = no signed permanent deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=5, D=3). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 29% to 40%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed. No Strong Divergence; the 16h spike lacked fres
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 574 | 0.6100 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 574 | 0.6000 | 0.6000 → 0.6000 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-5.74 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments regarding Trump's diplomatic talks and Pakistan's mediation suggest significant progress in US-Iran relations, potentially impacting the peace deal outlook.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.6 shares=573.7704918032787 pnl=$-5.7377
evidence news (10 items · score 83.16 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-04T12:54 [S A N A] Syria, Saudi Arabia sign municipal cooperation agreement in Riyadh
- 2026-05-04T16:00 [The Jerusalem Post] Iran after Khamenei: IRGC still holds power and economy - The Jerusalem Post
- 2026-05-04T18:02 [Market Screener] US, Gulf Arab nations draft new UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz
- 2026-05-04T19:13 [Crypto Briefing] Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-04T19:14 [Crypto Briefing] Trump: Iran shows more flexibility in US diplomatic talks
- 2026-05-04T21:31 [Crypto Economy] CLARITY Act Gains Momentum After Breakthrough Stablecoin Deal - Crypto Economy
- 2026-05-05T14:35 [Ron Paul Institute] A Negotiated Settlement for a Sovereign Iran is Nigh Impossible - The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity
- 2026-05-05T15:14 [Crypto Briefing] Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks, sees progress
- 2026-05-05T16:32 [Crypto Briefing] Trump seeks to dismantle Iran’s atomic stockpile in Pakistan talks - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-05T16:32 [Crypto Briefing] Trump seeks to dismantle Iran’s atomic stockpile in Pakistan talks - Crypto Briefing
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.61, "size_usd": 350.0, "target_price": 0.6784, "stop_price": 0.5316, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_mid": 0.395, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.6, "walk_top_size": 5367.13, "walk_filled_shares": 573.77, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.6, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.6, "side_bid": 0.6, "side_mid": 0.605, "fill_price": 0.6, "fill_shares": 573.77, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 573.77, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[37a742db] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.61, "original_size_shares": 573.7704918032787, "fill_id": "e42504eb-67eb-444b-9707-987f334e8a3f"}