Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? ↗

Price rose 9.0pp from 29.5% to 38.5% over 9.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 35.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 27.5%, 72h range: 24.0%-38.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed Ukraine–Russia peace deal before 2027; NO = no signed deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=3 (priced-in: E=3, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 30% to 38%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: mild — price rose while incremental signals slightly favored blockers (D=3 vs E=2), so no Strong Divergence. ★ DIRECT process signals support a pathway (U.S.-brokered 3-day ceasefire with 1,000–1,000 prisoner swap; Putin saying he’s ready to meet Zelenskyy in a third country “to sign an agreement”), but counter-signals state the truce is strictly limited to three days, accuse Kyiv of violations, and describe talks as “at an impasse”; none of this meets the settlement criterion of an actual signed peace deal. Net: the ceasefire news was largely priced in, the new “ready to meet to sign” headline justifies some repricing, but the 9pp steady climb overshoots given simultaneous limiting statements — expect partial reversion.