Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? ↗

Price fell 8.8pp from 70.0% to 61.2% over 1h (spike). Now at 61.2%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 69.2%, 72h range: 49.9%-70.8%] [EVR: 72h range 20.9pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend is DOWN, positive action required for YES), so in the absence of progress, price should drift downward. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing the location or scheduling of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting in Pakistan. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the news is STARVED for direct signals, so the trend and news are aligned by absence. The CONTEXT news is dominated by coverage of the US maintaining and escalating a naval blockade on Iran, with Trump rejecting Iran’s latest proposals and emphasizing continued pressure, but all of this is general conflict/diplomacy context, not about the location or scheduling of a next meeting. There is no evidence of imminent or scheduled US-Iran talks, let alone in Pakistan. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 11.2pp (from 61.2% to 50%). The move was a spike (-8.8pp), but with no direct catalyst, suggesting it was driven by liquidity or time-decay expectations rather than new information. Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not mixed, not echo/plateauing, and theta-bleed supports further drift downward in the absence of progress. No reversal triggers present.