← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 89851444-b2b2-439b-9911-0efe71cdec7a
· signal: ee9523f7
· event: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+13.81
pnl %
+18.42%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 70.0% → 61.2% over 1h, cusum=-5.336. Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend is DOWN, positive action required for YES), so in the absence of progress, price should drift downward. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing the location or scheduling of a US-Iran diplo
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 188 | 0.3980 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 188 | 0.4713 | 0.4720 → 0.4713 (3 lvl) | TP | $+13.81 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.398, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.4385, "stop_price": 0.338, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.501, "yes_ask": 0.528, "yes_mid": 0.5145, "yes_spread_pp": 2.7, "walk_levels_used": 3, "walk_top_fill": 0.472, "walk_top_size": 67.29, "walk_filled_shares": 188.44, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.4713, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.07, "side_bid_top": 0.472, "side_bid": 0.4713, "side_mid": 0.4855, "fill_price": 0.4713, "fill_shares": 188.44, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 188.44, "target_price": 0.4385, "stop_price": 0.338, "entry_price": 0.398, "original_size_shares": 188.44221105527637, "fill_pnl_pct": 18.42, "fill_pnl_usd": 13.8128, "pnl_pct_mid": 21.98, "pnl_pct_top": 18.59, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 3.28, "fill_id": "0d149cbf-791a-41f2-8864-a2d7442fab4e"}