US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 31.5% to 26.5% over 2h (spike). Now at 26.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 24.5%-41.5%]

Days to resolution: 33 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), so in the absence of positive news, the price should drift downward. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news overwhelmingly supports the NO side (i.e., against a US-Iran permanent peace deal), with multiple concrete developments: Trump cancels the US delegation's trip for Iran talks, a second round of US-Iran talks collapses, and the US rejects an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These are all process-blocking or breakdown signals, not mere rhetoric, and directly touch the resolution criteria. The trend is DOWN, implying the probability of a permanent peace deal is becoming less likely, and this aligns with the news. News momentum is INTENSIFYING, with multiple new, concrete developments and not just commentary or repetition. After clustering, there are three distinct high-quality momentum signals (trip cancellation, talks collapse, US rejection of Iranian proposal), and no credible counter-signals (no new talks scheduled, no progress, no breakthrough proposals accepted). Momentum signals: trend=3, counter=0. Remaining space: 21.5pp (from 26.5% to 5%). The move is a 5pp spike, but it is fully explained by the direct, concrete breakdown in talks and cancellation of diplomatic engagement—this is not just echo or plateauing. Step 3 hard rule check: No rules bind against continuation—news and trend are aligned, not mixed, not plateauing, not boundary, and not a multi-threshold or reversal scenario.