← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 7aa857e3-5788-4411-8a9c-86b50eabf0d0
· signal: f13eabea
· event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+7.09
pnl %
+9.46%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 31.5% → 26.5% over 2h, cusum=-4.115. Days to resolution: 33 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), so in the absence of positive news, the price should drift downward. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news overwhelmingly supports the NO side (i.e., against a US-Iran permanent peace deal), with multip
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 101 | 0.7400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 101 | 0.8100 | 0.8100 → 0.8100 (1 lvl) | TP | $+7.09 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.74, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.805, "stop_price": 0.68, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.28, "yes_ask": 0.95, "yes_mid": 0.615, "yes_spread_pp": 67.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.05, "walk_top_size": 86.99, "walk_filled_shares": 86.99, "walk_unfilled_shares": 14.36, "walk_avg_fill": 0.05, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.05, "side_bid": 0.05, "side_mid": 0.385, "fill_price": 0.05, "fill_shares": 86.99, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 101.35, "target_price": 0.805, "stop_price": 0.68, "entry_price": 0.74, "original_size_shares": 101.35135135135135, "fill_pnl_pct": -93.24, "fill_pnl_usd": -60.0231, "pnl_pct_mid": -47.97, "pnl_pct_top": -93.24, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -63.0, "fill_id": "fda81b88-c77b-46db-8305-5fc4e1539998"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.28, "yes_ask": 0.95, "yes_mid": 0.615, "yes_spread_pp": 67.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.05, "walk_top_size": 86.99, "walk_filled_shares": 14.36, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.05, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.05, "side_bid": 0.05, "side_mid": 0.385, "fill_price": 0.05, "fill_shares": 14.36, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 14.36, "target_price": 0.805, "stop_price": 0.68, "entry_price": 0.74, "original_size_shares": 101.35135135135135, "fill_pnl_pct": -93.24, "fill_pnl_usd": -9.9093, "pnl_pct_mid": -47.97, "pnl_pct_top": -93.24, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -63.0, "fill_id": "9840e850-5f66-4869-9b85-96785aca9091"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_mid": 0.615, "yes_spread_pp": 3.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.37, "walk_top_size": 100.0, "walk_filled_shares": 101.35, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.3657, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.43, "side_bid_top": 0.37, "side_bid": 0.3657, "side_mid": 0.385, "fill_price": 0.3657, "fill_shares": 101.35, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 101.35, "target_price": 0.805, "stop_price": 0.68, "entry_price": 0.74, "original_size_shares": 101.35135135135135, "fill_pnl_pct": -50.58, "fill_pnl_usd": -37.9358, "pnl_pct_mid": -47.97, "pnl_pct_top": -50.0, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -31.43, "fill_id": "5f170db6-7fc7-4965-8a6e-4b0344188b06"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.18, "yes_ask": 0.19, "yes_mid": 0.185, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.81, "walk_top_size": 1111.76, "walk_filled_shares": 101.35, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.81, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.81, "side_bid": 0.81, "side_mid": 0.815, "fill_price": 0.81, "fill_shares": 101.35, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 101.35, "target_price": 0.805, "stop_price": 0.68, "entry_price": 0.74, "original_size_shares": 101.35135135135135, "fill_pnl_pct": 9.46, "fill_pnl_usd": 7.0946, "pnl_pct_mid": 10.14, "pnl_pct_top": 9.46, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.5, "fill_id": "b030cfa9-0813-40e3-b3c3-752f10767bfa"}