Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? ↗

Price fell 10.0pp from 73.5% to 63.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 63.5%.

Days to resolution: 40 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump must announce the end of military operations against Iran by May 31st), the deadline is within 90 days, and the price is trending DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of Trump announcing an end to operations or any other resolution-class action. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and the news aligns: all coverage is about Trump extending the ceasefire, maintaining blockades, and waiting for further Iranian proposals, with no new escalation or settlement. The news is plateauing: multiple outlets confirm the same real-world event (Trump extending the ceasefire), but there is no intensifying momentum toward a resolution, just repetition and commentary. After clustering, there is one distinct real-world event (ceasefire extension), echoed in many articles. Signal classification: extending the ceasefire is a D3 (deadline extended, ultimatum softened), and the continuation of the blockade is status quo, not a de-escalation or escalation toward resolution. No momentum toward a YES outcome is present. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1 (D3). Remaining space: 13.5pp (from 63.5% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, not mixed, not a spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed supports further drift downward in the absence of positive YES signals. The move is justified by the lack of progress and the extension of the ceasefire, which delays any possible resolution.