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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 0f15762f-8e6c-4aab-8ed0-2d3a1ca18fa7
· signal: 8b937d73
· event: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+1.84
pnl %
+9.21%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 73.5% → 63.5% over 1h, cusum=-5.665. Days to resolution: 40 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Trump must announce the end of military operations against Iran by May 31st), the deadline is within 90 days, and the price is trending DOWN, so absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.38, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.415, "stop_price": 0.32, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.585, "side_price": 0.415, "exit_price": 0.415, "target_price": 0.415, "stop_price": 0.32, "entry_price": 0.38, "size_shares": 52.63157894736842, "pnl_pct": 9.21, "pnl_usd": 1.8421, "observed_slippage_pp": 0.0}