US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.0pp from 47.5% to 55.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 55.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 44.5%, 72h range: 32.5%-55.5%] [EVR: 72h range 23.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 23 days. This is a time‑decay market requiring a signed deal; absence of progress would normally be bearish for YES, but there is fresh de‑escalatory action offsetting theta. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, and the trend is UP, so they align. One concrete ACTION occurred: Trump paused the “Project Freedom” maritime operation amid talks (de‑escalation D4 toward a deal), while the other items (one‑week response remark, “too soon” caveat, and Iran denying new exchanges) are RHETORIC under the strict rule and count 0. After clustering, that’s 1 distinct actionable development with no counter‑actions or formal rejections; in an EVR tape, a spike tied to a concrete action can see follow‑through even if many headlines are just sentiment. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 44.5pp. Step 3 checks: no news‑trend conflict (Rule 1), not balanced mixed (Rule 2 not binding), spike has a concrete catalyst so Rule 5 exhaustion not binding, and the conflict‑ending cap (Rule 6) is not triggered (fewer than 4 E‑signals).