← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: f009c6bb-fe64-4847-8a7b-ddf43f42013e
· signal: 8b243208
· event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.00
pnl %
+0.00%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM UP — anchor→trigger: 47.5% → 55.5% over 1h, cusum=4.043. Days to resolution: 23 days. This is a time‑decay market requiring a signed deal; absence of progress would normally be bearish for YES, but there is fresh de‑escalatory action offsetting theta. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, and the trend is UP, so they align. One concrete ACTION occu
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 134 | 0.5600 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 134 | 0.5600 | 0.5600 → 0.5600 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate escalating tensions and military actions between the US and Iran, which could significantly impact the likelihood of a peace deal.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· STALL
flipped & exited: fill=0.56 shares=133.92857142857142 pnl=$0.0
evidence news (10 items · score 46.68 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-04T14:48 [Business Upturn] "No ships at all?" Iran rejects U.S. claims on Hormuz traffic, calls them 'false' - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-04T14:54 [The Northern Miner] Gold price continues to slide as US-Iran deal stalls - The Northern Miner
- 2026-05-04T15:07 [TV360 Nigeria] Iran Threatens U.S. Forces Over Strait of Hormuz as Trump Launches 'Project Freedom'
- 2026-05-04T15:22 [The Independent] US rejects Iran's claims that two missiles struck warship in Strait of Hormuz
- 2026-05-04T15:33 [GEO TV] Iran says it forced US warship back from Strait of Hormuz
- 2026-05-04T15:36 [RadioFreeEurope/Ra] US Launches Effort To Restart Ship Traffic Through Hormuz As Iran Issues New Threats
- 2026-05-04T16:03 [Kitco.com] S&P 500, Dow tick lower as US-Iran tensions unsettle investors
- 2026-05-04T16:16 [Crypto Briefing] Congress misses War Powers deadline amid Trump Iran conflict
- 2026-05-04T16:28 [afghanpaper] ادامه تنش میان امریکا و ایران بر سر تنگۀ هرمز
- 2026-05-04T17:51 [Crypto Briefing] US seeks approval to deploy hypersonic weapons amid Iran tensions
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.56, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.605, "stop_price": 0.5, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_mid": 0.565, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.56, "walk_top_size": 3255.15, "walk_filled_shares": 133.93, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.56, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.56, "side_bid": 0.56, "side_mid": 0.565, "fill_price": 0.56, "fill_shares": 133.93, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 133.93, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[0b84a572] entry=BUY_YES/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.56, "original_size_shares": 133.92857142857142, "fill_id": "a51c7d6e-c5a0-41d4-b3f9-cf0aa2e5ff8a"}