Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 25.9pp from 33.6% to 59.5% over 4.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 55.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-59.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer leaves office by June 30, 2026; NO = he remains PM through that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World.
Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 34% to 60%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: Price rose while incremental signals were net D (Starmer reiterating he won’t resign), but no Strong Divergence (E≥4/D≥4) and no ★ DIRECT resolution steps.
No ★ DIRECT event (e.g., formal leadership contest triggered, scheduled no-confidence vote, cabinet mass resignations, or an actual resignation) occurred; the fresh items are process/pressure (more MPs urging him to go, “how to remove” explainers) while Starmer’s on-record refusal to quit is a D-type signal that does not satisfy settlement criteria.
Given the extreme 72h range (42pp) and a context-flood of thematically aligned coverage, the large repricing likely reflects broad risk reassessment rather than a pure overreaction; without concrete procedural triggers, the spike may include some overshoot, but under the Extreme Volatility regime the default is FAIR rather than a fade.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.