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Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219
· Starmer out by...? · category: Grooming Gangs, Politics, Starmer, UK, World, keir
· resolves
run_id: dbec7f3a-c278-4de2-98fe-bd53b0ac004f
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug retro-fix: pipeline_run dbec7f3a was blocked by bug where omit_reeval-spawned runs dedup against their own upstream watch reeval_pending. Position manually reconstructed via position_planner.generate_plan().
view position ↗
○ closed
· VERDICT_FLIP
·
+$27.78
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
55.5% / 59.5%
move_start
33.6%
reversal
+4.0pp
move size / hours
25.9pp / 4.5h
shape
spike
72h range
17.5%—59.5% (Δ42.0pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 25.9pp from 33.6% to 59.5% over 4.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 55.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-59.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 343 → 89
quality: HIGH
tokens: 23638
article_thesis
relevant
Jess Phillips resigns from government: Read her resignation letter in full - Left Foot Forward: Leading the UK's progressive debate
article_thesis
relevant
Labour minister resigns as Alex Davies-Jones 'no choice' statement in full
article_thesis
direct
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces down Labour Party rebels amid demands he resign
gnews_indirect_evidence
direct
UK's Starmer defies calls to quit, says he's getting on with governing - The Detroit News
article_thesis
relevant
Keir Starmer 'must stay' says Rugby MP amid 'chaos' warning
article_thesis
direct
High profile minister Jess Phillips resigns from Starmer's government as UK PM vows to 'fight on'
article_thesis
direct
UK's Starmer defiant as calls for his resignation grow and 2 ministers quit
article_thesis
direct
Jess Phillips quits UK government adding pressure on Keir Starmer to quit | BreakingNews
article_thesis
direct
Starmer crisis deepens as Jess Phillips dramatically resigns
article_thesis
relevant
Keir Starmer now faces four crucial options from quitting to fighting on
article_thesis
direct
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer grapples with leadership crisis amid growing calls to quit - MyJoyOnline
gnews_mechanism
relevant
What is happening with Keir Starmer’s leadership: at-a-glance - BBC
article_thesis
relevant
MP speaks out over Andy Burnham as Keir Starmer under pressure
gnews_thesis
direct
The Latest: Starmer fights for political survival as calls for his resignation grow in UK - Newsday
article_thesis
noise
Jess Phillips Resigns As Home Office Minister
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v4 · 20267 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer leaves office/leadership by June 30, 2026; NO = he remains in post past that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2 (two ministers resigning: Jess Phillips; Alex Davies-Jones), D=1 (Starmer formally tells Cabinet he will not resign), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 34% to 60%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: the incremental news leans E and aligns with the price rise. However, the ★ DIRECT actions are ministerial resignations (pressure) and a formal refusal to resign (D8), none of which satisfy the settlement criterion of Starmer actually leaving; these are medium-impact process signals. Two resignations can justify a 10–15pp repricing, but a 25.9pp spike is outsized relative to the evidence and partially countered by Starmer’s on-record refusal, so a pullback from the peak is warranted.