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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? ↗
will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-june-30
· María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? · category: Politics, Trump, Trump-Machado, Venezuela
· resolves
run_id: 287b554a-36d3-44f0-8d13-e17c8e1bcdfb
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· THETA_TIME_STOP
·
+$0.00
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
21.5% / 25.5%
move_start
15.1%
reversal
+4.0pp
move size / hours
10.4pp / 62.0h
shape
spike
72h range
15.0%—25.5% (Δ10.5pp)
since peak
17.0h
Price rose 10.4pp from 15.1% to 25.5% over 62.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 21.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 17.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 47 → 4
quality: HIGH
tokens: 14994
gnews_indirect_evidence
noise
Estados Unidos lanzó un ataque contra una nueva narcolancha en el Pacífico oriental: dos muertos - Diario Neuquino
gnews_thesis
relevant
María Corina Machado y la reconstrucción de Venezuela - Infobae
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Muerte de preso político desata ola de indignación y exigencias de justicia en Venezuela - Infobae
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Canciller Pareja confirma arribo de misión de observadores de OEA y UE para segunda vuelta - Agencia Peruana de Noticias | ANDINA
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 11528 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Machado physically enters Venezuela by June 30; NO = she does not enter or remains abroad through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World without direct evidence. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 15% to 26%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No ★ DIRECT events indicate a scheduled return, permission granted, travel plans, or border entry attempt; the Infobae piece (meeting in Washington) is context-only and older, and the other headlines are unrelated to the criterion. A 10pp+ rise on zero DIRECT/process signals and opposite to theta decay is likely flow-driven and overextended; expect partial reversion as time passes without concrete return steps.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL