← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: afcbb349-5aef-4e16-b326-da70a8226b29
· signal: 5b579361
· event: María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
THETA TIME STOP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.00
pnl %
+0.00%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Machado physically enters Venezuela by June 30; NO = she does not enter or remains abroad through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World without direct evidence. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 15% to 26%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No ★ DIRE
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 34 | 0.7900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 34 | 0.7900 | 0.7900 → 0.7900 (1 lvl) | THETA_TIME_STOP | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the context or expectations regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the context or expectations regarding María Corina Machado's potential entry into Venezuela.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would significantly alter the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline about Carlos III and the UK-EU relationship does not relate to María Corina Machado or the situation in Venezuela, thus it does not change the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.19 )
- 2026-05-13T12:53 [El Español] Carlos III anuncia que Londres legislará para priorizar la relación con la UE en plena crisis del Gobierno de Starmer
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that would change the existing context regarding María Corina Machado's situation.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.79, "size_usd": 27.24, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.54, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.2, "yes_ask": 0.21, "yes_mid": 0.205, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.79, "walk_top_size": 274.32, "walk_filled_shares": 34.48, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.79, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.79, "side_bid": 0.79, "side_mid": 0.795, "fill_price": 0.79, "fill_shares": 34.48, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 34.48, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.54, "entry_price": 0.79, "original_size_shares": 34.48101265822785, "fill_pnl_pct": 0.0, "fill_pnl_usd": 0.0, "pnl_pct_mid": 0.63, "pnl_pct_top": 0.0, "trigger_vs_level_pp": null, "mfe_drift_pp": 2.0, "current_drift_pp": 0.0, "hours_held": 96.05, "fill_id": "65a8f8bf-811f-493b-b88b-16513b1452fd"}