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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-2026
· US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Vance
· resolves
run_id: 2abb65a2-7b3b-44dd-88ae-c1b351101201
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· MFE_GIVEBACK
·
+$29.93
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
30.5% / 33.5%
move_start
10.8%
reversal
+3.0pp
move size / hours
22.7pp / 18.0h
shape
spike
72h range
9.5%—33.5% (Δ24.0pp)
since peak
1.0h
Price rose 22.7pp from 10.8% to 33.5% over 18.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 30.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 339 → 10
quality: HIGH
tokens: 6065
article_thesis
noise
Professor Giovagnoli: Rubio's Rome mission signals U.S. effort to repair ties with Vatican and Italy
article_thesis
relevant
Beijing hosts Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi as Trump-Xi summit looms, raising stakes in regional diplomacy- Moneycontrol.com
article_thesis
relevant
US-Iran talks remain stalled, no agreement on key issues
article_precursor
relevant
Gold Surges 2.3% on U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Progress and Weakening Dollar - Blockonomi
article_precursor
relevant
Crude Oil Plunges 6% on Prospects of U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement and Hormuz Reopening - Blockonomi
article_precursor
direct
Iran says it wants a 'comprehensive agreement' with US
article_precursor
direct
'Project Freedom' paused amid Iran talks says Donald Trump
article_precursor
direct
Trump Pauses "Project Freedom", aimed at escorting other countries' stranded ships with the help of US Navy in Strait of Hormuz. Is the America-Iran diplomatic breakthrough within reach?
gnews_thesis
noise
What will happen when Trump meets Xi? - Brookings
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Oil falls as Trump signals Hormuz shipping plan, Iran talks progress - Seeking Alpha
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 15492 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by May 15, 2026; NO = no such meeting confirmed/held by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=4 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 11% to 34%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Strong Divergence — the price rose while D≥4 opposed. The key E signals were process-only (Trump pausing “Project Freedom” to enable talks; Iran saying it wants a “comprehensive agreement”; mediator-level chatter), whereas multiple opposing signals undercut a near-term meeting (reports that US–Iran talks remain stalled; Iranian air defenses engaging drones near Qeshm; a US–Bahrain draft UNSC resolution to hold Iran accountable; Iran imposing new Hormuz shipping permits). None of these constitutes or confirms a US–Iran meeting being scheduled or held, so a 22.7pp spike on optimism without a scheduled meeting is likely an overshoot; expect partial reversion. Kill switches: - White House or Iranian MFA announces/schedules a bilateral US–Iran diplomatic meeting to occur before May 15 - Credible mediator (e.g., Qatar/China) publicly confirms both sides agreed to meet bilaterally with date/venue before May 15 - Official readout released confirming a direct US–Iran meeting has already taken place - Joint US–Iran statement or photo-op confirming ministers/negotiators met ahead of May 15
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL