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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: d31ea44b-319e-47f3-8114-f3b31a56224b
· signal: 86311ac0
· event: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+29.93
pnl %
+8.55%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by May 15, 2026; NO = no such meeting confirmed/held by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=4 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 11% to 34%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Strong Divergence
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 507 | 0.6900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 507 | 0.7490 | 0.7500 → 0.7490 (2 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $+29.93 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of talks and Iran's new proposals indicate a shift in diplomatic engagement that could impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 27.80 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T13:05 [Crypto Briefing] Oman mediates US-Iran talks, boosting diplomatic meeting prospects
- 2026-05-03T14:18 [gistmania.com] Trump Studies Iran's 14-Point Peace Plan As Hormuz Blockade, Nuclear Deadlock Cloud Talks
- 2026-05-03T14:24 [Crypto Briefing] Israel buys fighter jets as US-Iran tensions rise
- 2026-05-03T14:24 [Crypto Briefing] Iran proposes three-stage plan to end hostilities with US
- 2026-05-03T14:45 [GV Wire] What to Know About the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
- 2026-05-03T15:00 [The Frontier Post] Iran says US must change approach for talks to advance; proposal sent via Pakistan
- 2026-05-03T15:05 [NEWS.am] The Guardian: Carney's participation in the EPC summit will demonstrate Western support for Armenia | NEWS.am
- 2026-05-03T15:06 [Crypto Briefing] Federal Reserve faces potential leadership change amid Powell-Warsh meeting - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
- 2026-05-03T20:10 [Crypto Briefing] US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of US talks with Iran and the proposal for a three-stage plan indicate significant diplomatic movement that could alter market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 27.80 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T13:05 [Crypto Briefing] Oman mediates US-Iran talks, boosting diplomatic meeting prospects
- 2026-05-03T14:18 [gistmania.com] Trump Studies Iran's 14-Point Peace Plan As Hormuz Blockade, Nuclear Deadlock Cloud Talks
- 2026-05-03T14:24 [Crypto Briefing] Israel buys fighter jets as US-Iran tensions rise
- 2026-05-03T14:24 [Crypto Briefing] Iran proposes three-stage plan to end hostilities with US
- 2026-05-03T14:45 [GV Wire] What to Know About the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
- 2026-05-03T15:00 [The Frontier Post] Iran says US must change approach for talks to advance; proposal sent via Pakistan
- 2026-05-03T15:05 [NEWS.am] The Guardian: Carney's participation in the EPC summit will demonstrate Western support for Armenia | NEWS.am
- 2026-05-03T15:06 [Crypto Briefing] Federal Reserve faces potential leadership change amid Powell-Warsh meeting - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-03T19:25 [Yeni Şafak] Syrian, Egyptian foreign ministers hold talks in Cairo on first official visit
- 2026-05-03T20:10 [Crypto Briefing] US confirms talks with Iran amid Operation Epic Fury: CNN
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant progress towards a concrete agreement between the US and Iran, suggesting a potential shift in the diplomatic landscape that was not previously established.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 6.61 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T09:37 [Цензор.НЕТ] US and Iran near agreement on memorandum to end war, Axios says
- 2026-05-06T10:03 [The New Arab] US and Iran 'closing in' on one-page memo to end war: Axios
- 2026-05-06T10:10 [Anadolu Ajansı] US, Iran nearing framework memo to end war, launch nuclear talks, report says
- 2026-05-06T10:32 [International Busi] US, Iran Move Closer to 14-Point Memo to End War, Nuclear Talks to Follow Next
- 2026-05-06T10:39 [thedailyjagran.com] US And Iran Close To One-Page Deal To End War: What Does The Framework Include?
- 2026-05-06T10:49 [TFIGlobal] Iran-U.S. finalizes just 1-page agreement to end the War, set stage for Nuclear Talks: Reports
- 2026-05-06T10:59 [Khyber News -Offic] US Iran Ceasefire Agreement Nears as Draft Deal Signals Major Diplomatic Breakthrough - Pashto News and Current Affairs Channel | Khyber News
- 2026-05-06T11:01 [Business Upturn] US-Iran talks hint at blockade easing, but final deal still uncertain - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T11:12 [Business Upturn] "Mood was high": White House signals progress in Iran talks amid fragile diplomacy - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T11:16 [Daily Times] US-Iran talks signal major peace breakthrough - Daily Times
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant progress towards a concrete agreement between the US and Iran, suggesting a potential shift in the diplomatic landscape that was not previously established.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 6.61 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T09:37 [Цензор.НЕТ] US and Iran near agreement on memorandum to end war, Axios says
- 2026-05-06T10:03 [The New Arab] US and Iran 'closing in' on one-page memo to end war: Axios
- 2026-05-06T10:10 [Anadolu Ajansı] US, Iran nearing framework memo to end war, launch nuclear talks, report says
- 2026-05-06T10:32 [International Busi] US, Iran Move Closer to 14-Point Memo to End War, Nuclear Talks to Follow Next
- 2026-05-06T10:39 [thedailyjagran.com] US And Iran Close To One-Page Deal To End War: What Does The Framework Include?
- 2026-05-06T10:49 [TFIGlobal] Iran-U.S. finalizes just 1-page agreement to end the War, set stage for Nuclear Talks: Reports
- 2026-05-06T10:59 [Khyber News -Offic] US Iran Ceasefire Agreement Nears as Draft Deal Signals Major Diplomatic Breakthrough - Pashto News and Current Affairs Channel | Khyber News
- 2026-05-06T11:01 [Business Upturn] US-Iran talks hint at blockade easing, but final deal still uncertain - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T11:12 [Business Upturn] "Mood was high": White House signals progress in Iran talks amid fragile diplomacy - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T11:16 [Daily Times] US-Iran talks signal major peace breakthrough - Daily Times
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The reports of a preliminary agreement and "great progress" indicate a significant shift in the negotiation status that could impact trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (8 items · score 3.61 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06 [?] Iran says it wants a 'comprehensive agreement' with US
- 2026-05-06T07:20 [SGT Report] Trump Pauses Project Freedom Amid "Great Progress" Towards 'Complete & Final' Agreement With Iran
- 2026-05-06T09:05 [Tribune] What Jerry Moran said of recent disagreements with Trump administration
- 2026-05-06T10:03 [United News of Ind] Iran seeks 'fair' peace deal with US, says Iranian FM Araghchi
- 2026-05-06T10:27 [Yeni Şafak] US, Iran nearing preliminary agreement to end war, Axios reports
- 2026-05-06T12:09 [London South East] US pre-open: Futures higher as Trump signals great progress in Iran talks | Financial News
- 2026-05-06T12:25 [Business Upturn] US P resident Trump says 'too early' for peace deal with Iran, casts doubt on direct talks - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T12:34 [firmenpresse.de] Fortuna Establishes Presence in the Guyana Shield Through Quartzstone Earn-In Agreement
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant progress towards a specific memorandum to end the war, which is a material development compared to the previously known stalled talks.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (9 items · score 4.36 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T10:27 [Zee News] US-Iran nearing 14-point memorandum to end war: Reports
- 2026-05-06T10:37 [Firstpost] China discusses Hormuz stalemate with Iran days before Trump meets Xi in Beijing
- 2026-05-06T11:36 [The Statesman] US, Iran inch closer to 'end the war': 14-point memorandum draft signals substantive diplomatic progress
- 2026-05-06T11:38 [Oneindia] US-Iran Talks Reach Final Stage Over One-Page Memorandum to Halt War in Gulf: Report
- 2026-05-06T11:40 [Al-Monitor] US pauses Hormuz escort mission as Trump cites progress on Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T12:25 [Business Upturn] US P resident Trump says 'too early' for peace deal with Iran, casts doubt on direct talks - Business Upturn
- 2026-05-06T12:29 [Agenparl] Libano, l'urlo nel deserto: il tradimento dei Summit e il Memorandum del silenzio - Agenparl
- 2026-05-06T12:30 [ThePrint] US and Iran closing in on memo to end war, sources say
- 2026-05-06T12:34 [firmenpresse.de] Fortuna Establishes Presence in the Guyana Shield Through Quartzstone Earn-In Agreement
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant progress towards a specific agreement, suggesting a potential breakthrough that could alter market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 3.21 )
- 2026-05-06T10:27 [Zee News] US-Iran nearing 14-point memorandum to end war: Reports
- 2026-05-06T10:37 [Firstpost] China discusses Hormuz stalemate with Iran days before Trump meets Xi in Beijing
- 2026-05-06T11:36 [The Statesman] US, Iran inch closer to 'end the war': 14-point memorandum draft signals substantive diplomatic progress
- 2026-05-06T11:38 [Oneindia] US-Iran Talks Reach Final Stage Over One-Page Memorandum to Halt War in Gulf: Report
- 2026-05-06T11:40 [Al-Monitor] US pauses Hormuz escort mission as Trump cites progress on Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T12:30 [ThePrint] US and Iran closing in on memo to end war, sources say
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New headlines indicate potential breakthroughs and shifts in negotiations that could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 5.00 )
- 2026-05-06T07:04 [BOE Report] Iran says it wants a 'comprehensive agreement' with US
- 2026-05-06T12:33 [Palestine Chronicl] US-Iran Framework Talks Progress as Tehran Denies Active Nuclear Negotiations - Palestine Chronicle
- 2026-05-06T12:49 [Free Press Kashmir] US-Iran talks near possible breakthrough on war framework
- 2026-05-06T12:49 [The Media Line] Iran Reviews 14-Point US Proposal to End War and Restart Nuclear Talks
- 2026-05-06T13:22 [24 News HD] Pakistani source says US and Iran closing in on memorandum to end war
- 2026-05-06T13:38 [MoneyControl] China Steps Into Iran Crisis | Can Beijing Replace Pakistan As Global Mediator?- Moneycontrol.com
- 2026-05-06T13:38 [bankingnews.gr] U-turn: Iran denies 14-point deal with US - Trump ultimatum: We will bomb you if you do not agree
- 2026-05-06T13:39 [News18] In Meeting With Araghchi, China Pushes For Quick Reopening Of Strait Of Hormuz: Sources
- 2026-05-06T13:51 [Internewscast Jour] Trump Cautiously Awaits Iran Peace Deal, Says It's 'Too Soon' for Celebration Amid Nearing Agreement - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-06T14:08 [Daily Times] Ishaq Dar seeks lasting US-Iran peace deal - Daily Times
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of Iran reviewing a 14-point peace proposal and the indication of a potential breakthrough within 24-72 hours suggest significant developments that could impact the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
evidence news (4 items · score 2.17 )
- 2026-05-06T13:50 [The New Arab] Exclusive: Iran-US talks not yet at stage for agreement
- 2026-05-06T13:52 [Daily Times] Iran pushes for comprehensive US deal amid Gulf tensions - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T14:33 [Greater Kashmir] US and Iran close to finalising peace deal
- 2026-05-06T14:56 [MoneyControl] Iran reviews and questions 14-point peace proposal, Pakistan sees breakthrough in next 24-72 hours- Moneycontrol.com
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The mention of Iran reviewing a 14-point peace proposal and the indication of a potential breakthrough within 24-72 hours suggest significant progress in negotiations that could impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (4 items · score 2.11 )
- 2026-05-06T13:52 [Daily Times] Iran pushes for comprehensive US deal amid Gulf tensions - Daily Times
- 2026-05-06T14:33 [Greater Kashmir] US and Iran close to finalising peace deal
- 2026-05-06T14:56 [MoneyControl] Iran reviews and questions 14-point peace proposal, Pakistan sees breakthrough in next 24-72 hours- Moneycontrol.com
- 2026-05-06T15:05 [SouthAsianDaily.co] 'Project Freedom' Paused Amid Iran Talks: Trump - South Asian Daily
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant progress towards a memorandum to end the war, suggesting a potential breakthrough not previously reflected in the known headlines.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ HIGH
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/HIGH
evidence news (3 items · score 1.87 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T14:35 [CNN International] US and Iran closing in on memorandum aimed at ending war, source says
- 2026-05-06T14:57 [MEO] US, Iran 'close to deal' to end war as Pakistan signals breakthrough
- 2026-05-06T15:20 [Zero Hedge] China Wants Iran War End, Pushes 'Immediate' Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate progress in US-Iran talks and involvement of China, suggesting a shift in diplomatic dynamics that could impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.51 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T12:39 [Palestine Chronicl] US-Iran Framework Talks Progress as Tehran Denies Active Nuclear Negotiations - Palestine Chronicle
- 2026-05-06T13:44 [Al-Monitor] Iran, China discuss Hormuz reopening amid potential US-Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T14:46 [Al-Monitor] Lebanon, Israel eye third round of talks, but no Netanyahu-Aoun meeting in sight
- 2026-05-06T15:49 [The Hill] Oil prices plunge amid reported progress in US, Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T15:57 [NEO TV | Voice of ] Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi hails 'constructive' talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate progress in US-Iran talks and a specific focus on the Hormuz reopening, which could influence market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (4 items · score 2.03 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T13:44 [Al-Monitor] Iran, China discuss Hormuz reopening amid potential US-Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T14:46 [Al-Monitor] Lebanon, Israel eye third round of talks, but no Netanyahu-Aoun meeting in sight
- 2026-05-06T15:49 [The Hill] Oil prices plunge amid reported progress in US, Iran talks
- 2026-05-06T15:57 [NEO TV | Voice of ] Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi hails 'constructive' talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.69, "size_usd": 350.0, "target_price": 0.8416, "stop_price": 0.5284, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
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