Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price rose 27.0pp from 7.5% to 34.5% over 26.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 29.5%, down 5.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 15; NO = no such announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 8% to 34%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence: the main new signal is Trump saying the Hormuz effort is “paused” amid “great progress” (E: process toward cessation), countered by a fresh attack on a French-operated ship (D: hostilities continue). Critically, the settlement requires Trump to announce the blockade is lifted; a pause and positive diplomacy are process, not resolution, and thus fail the strict criteria. The “cessation market exception” justifies a meaningful repricing for reopening the pathway (≈5–15pp), but a 27pp spike is outsized for process-only news, especially with fresh counter-signals and only nine days left. Expect partial mean reversion from the spike.

Kill switches:
- Trump formally announces the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted.
- White House schedules and confirms a specific address where Trump will declare the blockade lifted.
- Pentagon/Defense Secretary issues an on-record order ending “Project Freedom” and stating the blockade has been lifted.
- Joint US–Iran (or US + key mediator) statement confirming an agreement that includes immediate lifting of the blockade.
- US Navy/NavWarn/Notice to Mariners publicly confirms withdrawal and that the blockade has ended.