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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: ed1ac3b0-9267-4048-a39b-414b43b9c7e9
· signal: 791845fe
· event: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.54
pnl %
+10.77%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 15; NO = no such announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 8% to 34%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence: the mai
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 8 | 0.6500 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 8 | 0.7200 | 0.7200 → 0.7200 (1 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $+0.54 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments regarding Trump's "Project Freedom" and ongoing negotiations with Iran could significantly impact the blockade status and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 19.00 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T12:31 [Foreign Policy Jou] Pete Hegseth Orders 5,000 US Troops Out of Germany Following German Chancellor's Iran Criticism
- 2026-05-03T15:19 [Crypto Briefing] Adm. Cooper visit signals continued US blockade in Strait of Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T16:43 [Crypto Briefing] Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil prices
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:31 [International Busi] 'Deeply Fearful': Trump Spiritual Adviser Paula White-Cain Issues Chilling Warning Over Secret White House Decisions
- 2026-05-04T05:09 [Crypto Briefing] UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
- 2026-05-04T07:47 [Novinite.com] Trump Launches "Project Freedom" to Clear Strait of Hormuz as Iran Talks Show Progress - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
- 2026-05-04T10:08 [The Jewish Voice] Witkoff: U.S. Engaged in Ongoing Negotiations With Iran to Bring War to a Close
- 2026-05-04T11:33 [The Business Times] Teheran says it turned back US warship from Strait of Hormuz; US official denies missile strike
- 2026-05-04T11:46 [FXEmpire.com] US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Gains on Fed Hawkishness - Can GBP/USD and EUR/USD Hold?
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: New developments regarding Trump's "Project Freedom" and ongoing negotiations with Iran could significantly impact the blockade status and market perceptions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 19.00 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T12:31 [Foreign Policy Jou] Pete Hegseth Orders 5,000 US Troops Out of Germany Following German Chancellor's Iran Criticism
- 2026-05-03T15:19 [Crypto Briefing] Adm. Cooper visit signals continued US blockade in Strait of Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T16:43 [Crypto Briefing] Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil prices
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:31 [International Busi] 'Deeply Fearful': Trump Spiritual Adviser Paula White-Cain Issues Chilling Warning Over Secret White House Decisions
- 2026-05-04T05:09 [Crypto Briefing] UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
- 2026-05-04T07:47 [Novinite.com] Trump Launches "Project Freedom" to Clear Strait of Hormuz as Iran Talks Show Progress - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
- 2026-05-04T10:08 [The Jewish Voice] Witkoff: U.S. Engaged in Ongoing Negotiations With Iran to Bring War to a Close
- 2026-05-04T11:33 [The Business Times] Teheran says it turned back US warship from Strait of Hormuz; US official denies missile strike
- 2026-05-04T11:46 [FXEmpire.com] US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Gains on Fed Hawkishness - Can GBP/USD and EUR/USD Hold?
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline restates existing information about Trump's pause on Project Freedom without introducing new developments.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.64 )
- 2026-05-06T02:45 [Crypto Briefing] Trump pauses Project Freedom amid Hormuz blockade negotiations
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headline introduces claims about the blockade still being in effect and rising real-world damage, which could impact trader sentiment and expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (1 items · score 0.77 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T10:58 [naked capitalism] Iran War: Trump "Pauses" Failed Operation Freedom, Rubio Claims End to Epic Fury With Strait of Hormuz Still Blockaded and Alarms About Real World Damage Rising | naked capitalism
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a potential shift in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran declaring it open for safe passage, which could significantly impact market expectations.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (7 items · score 4.00 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-05T20:56 [WION] Rubio says, 'Iran 'cannot be allowed' to control Strait of Hormuz'; defends US economic pressure campaign
- 2026-05-06T04:32 [DNyuz] Trump abruptly pauses new war initiative -- citing 'tremendous success'
- 2026-05-06T10:58 [naked capitalism] Iran War: Trump "Pauses" Failed Operation Freedom, Rubio Claims End to Epic Fury With Strait of Hormuz Still Blockaded and Alarms About Real World Damage Rising | naked capitalism
- 2026-05-06T11:39 [anews] Iran says ships complying with new Hormuz transit regulations
- 2026-05-06T11:59 [GB News] Donald Trump hails imminent end of 'legendary' Iran war campaign with hope Strait of Hormuz reopens
- 2026-05-06T12:23 [The Whistler Niger] Iran Declares Strait Of Hormuz Open For Safe Passage
- 2026-05-06T12:29 [The Free Press - T] Trump Issues Final Ultimatum: Hormuz Blockade Lift Or "High Intensity" Bombing To Begin - Tampa Free Press
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that alters the existing understanding of the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate significant developments in the Iran crisis and Trump's actions, which could impact market expectations regarding the blockade's status.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (4 items · score 2.08 )
- 2026-05-06T13:00 [NaturalNews.com] Trump Suspends Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz, Cites Progress in Iran Talks - NaturalNews.com
- 2026-05-06T13:00 [Benzinga] Oil Crashes 8% After Trump's 'Open To All' Hormuz Post - United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO)
- 2026-05-06T13:24 [ExBulletin] Iran remains defiant after new US effort to reopen Strait of Hormuz - ExBulletin
- 2026-05-06T13:38 [MoneyControl] China Steps Into Iran Crisis | Can Beijing Replace Pakistan As Global Mediator?- Moneycontrol.com
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines primarily restate existing information about Trump's pause of "Project Freedom" without introducing new developments or insights.
evidence news (2 items · score 1.87 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-06T13:39 [BBC] Strait of Hormuz: What happened to Donald Trump's 'Project Freedom' plan?
- 2026-05-06T14:31 [Cedar News Newspap] Trump pauses "Project Freedom" in Strait of Hormuz just 50 hours after launch | Cedar News
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
event timeline
ENTRY
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EXIT_SIGNAL
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