Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price rose 11.9pp from 30.6% to 42.5% over 18.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 40.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran issues/implements an airspace closure (e.g., NOTAM or official order) by May 31; NO = airspace remains open through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 31% to 42%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: Yes — price rose despite no verified signals moving Iran closer to an airspace closure. There are no ★ DIRECT reports of a NOTAM, aviation authority order, or official statement preparing to close Iranian airspace; headlines are sanctions, rhetoric, and talks (process-only) which do not satisfy the closure criteria. Given a 11.9pp spike on process/context alone and theta opposed, the move likely overshot and should partially revert.