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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 4d9dfe37-4e18-428a-9f60-bcaa19a4285c
· signal: 15d97211
· event: Iran closes its airspace by...?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
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target
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size
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran issues/implements an airspace closure (e.g., NOTAM or official order) by May 31; NO = airspace remains open through the deadline. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 31% to 42%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 583 | 0.6000 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in military tensions and disruptions to global jet fuel supplies, which could impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.68 )
- 2026-05-09T17:05 [Crypto Briefing] US-Israel strikes target Iran's nuclear weaponization capabilities
- 2026-05-09T21:25 [Crypto Briefing] Iran's IRGC ready to strike US targets amid rising tensions
- 2026-05-11T10:50 [Crypto Briefing] US military aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport amid Israel airspace closure concerns
- 2026-05-11T10:53 [Crypto Briefing] US military aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport amid Israel airspace closure concerns - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-11T13:02 [Crypto Briefing] Iran war disrupts global jet fuel supplies, threatens summer travel
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in military tensions and disruptions to global jet fuel supplies, which could impact market predictions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.68 )
- 2026-05-09T17:05 [Crypto Briefing] US-Israel strikes target Iran's nuclear weaponization capabilities
- 2026-05-09T21:25 [Crypto Briefing] Iran's IRGC ready to strike US targets amid rising tensions
- 2026-05-11T10:50 [Crypto Briefing] US military aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport amid Israel airspace closure concerns
- 2026-05-11T10:53 [Crypto Briefing] US military aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport amid Israel airspace closure concerns - Crypto Briefing
- 2026-05-11T13:02 [Crypto Briefing] Iran war disrupts global jet fuel supplies, threatens summer travel
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing conflict.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace and the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing narrative regarding Iran's airspace or the ongoing tensions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The closure of Iran's airspace by May 31 could significantly escalate tensions and impact market dynamics, which was not previously indicated in the known headlines.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.6, "size_usd": 350.0, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.35, "broker": "paper"}