Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price fell 12.7pp from 47.5% to 34.8% over 9h (steady). Now at 34.8%.

Days to resolution: 62 days. Theta-bleed is active because the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and a positive action (Russia capturing Kostyantynivka) is required for YES. In this context, absence of progress is bearish for YES and supports further downside for NO. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no reports of Russian capture, entry, or even direct fighting in Kostyantynivka itself. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), and the news is STARVED of direct signals, with only CONTEXT events about Russian advances elsewhere (Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad) and general commentary on Russian ambitions. No event describes concrete progress toward the specific market resolution. News momentum is plateauing/starved: repeated general assessments, no new actors, no escalation or breakthrough. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 14.8pp (from 34.8% to 20%). Step 3 hard rules: RULE 4 (theta-bleed exception) applies—plateauing/starved describes absence of news, not weakness of evidence, so CONTINUE is allowed. No other hard rules bind.