← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: a3840fb5-f553-4b0d-9878-c2fec90f8a70
· signal: 214fdbd1
· event: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-9.94
pnl %
-9.94%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 47.5% → 34.8% over 9h, cusum=-3.946. Days to resolution: 62 days. Theta-bleed is active because the deadline is within 90 days, the trend is DOWN, and a positive action (Russia capturing Kostyantynivka) is required for YES. In this context, absence of progress is bearish for YES and supports further downside for NO. Step 1a: There are
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 153 | 0.6520 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 153 | 0.5872 | 0.5880 → 0.5872 (2 lvl) | SL | $-9.94 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.652, "size_usd": 100.0, "target_price": 0.7015, "stop_price": 0.592, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.361, "yes_ask": 0.412, "yes_mid": 0.3865, "yes_spread_pp": 5.1, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.588, "walk_top_size": 30.0, "walk_filled_shares": 153.37, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.5872, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.08, "side_bid_top": 0.588, "side_bid": 0.5872, "side_mid": 0.6135, "fill_price": 0.5872, "fill_shares": 153.37, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 153.37, "target_price": 0.7015, "stop_price": 0.592, "entry_price": 0.652, "original_size_shares": 153.37423312883436, "fill_pnl_pct": -9.94, "fill_pnl_usd": -9.9387, "pnl_pct_mid": -5.9, "pnl_pct_top": -9.82, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -0.48, "fill_id": "c7748a25-35d5-45b5-a07a-703568e5509e"}