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Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? ↗
will-tom-begich-win-the-2026-alaska-governor-election
· Alaska Governor Election Winner · category: Alaska Midterm, Elections, Governor midterms, Midterms, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, US Election
· resolves
run_id: 46f9b2a4-d39e-442a-b034-09b2aba732b6
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· TAKE_PROFIT
·
+$14.82
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
47.0% / 52.5%
move_start
35.5%
reversal
+5.5pp
move size / hours
17.0pp / 103.5h
shape
spike
72h range
35.5%—52.5% (Δ17.0pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 17.0pp from 35.5% to 52.5% over 103.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 47.0%, down 5.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 17 → 1
quality: HIGH
tokens: 14207
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 10561 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Tom Begich wins the 2026 Alaska governor election; NO = he does not. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 36% to 52%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no hard rule No ★ DIRECT resolution-relevant news (no verified general-election polls showing Begich ahead, no major endorsements/withdrawals, no ballot/eligibility changes); the lone NYT “latest polls” tracker link is CONTEXT-only and provides no concrete new data. A 17pp, >4-day rise on zero E/D signals is classic flow-driven repricing (Coroner logic: prolonged move with STARVED news), far exceeding what the provided context can justify. The spike should partially revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL