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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 4b8ad52e-0c89-465e-8f91-207f0e7ed953
· signal: 1303e85f
· event: Alaska Governor Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+14.82
pnl %
+18.52%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Tom Begich wins the 2026 Alaska governor election; NO = he does not. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 36% to 52%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no hard rule No ★ DIRECT resolution-relevant news (no verified general-election po
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 148 | 0.5400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 148 | 0.6400 | 0.6400 → 0.6400 (1 lvl) | TP | $+14.82 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.54, "size_usd": 80.03, "target_price": 0.614, "stop_price": 0.456, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.35, "yes_ask": 0.36, "yes_mid": 0.355, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.64, "walk_top_size": 247.21, "walk_filled_shares": 148.2, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.64, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.64, "side_bid": 0.64, "side_mid": 0.645, "fill_price": 0.64, "fill_shares": 148.2, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 148.2, "target_price": 0.614, "stop_price": 0.456, "entry_price": 0.54, "original_size_shares": 148.2037037037037, "fill_pnl_pct": 18.52, "fill_pnl_usd": 14.8204, "pnl_pct_mid": 19.44, "pnl_pct_top": 18.52, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 2.6, "fill_id": "880b55fc-2a2b-4d77-89b7-39533a3a8d53"}