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Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? ↗
will-bernadette-wilson-win-the-2026-alaska-governor-election
· Alaska Governor Election Winner · category: Alaska Midterm, Elections, Governor midterms, Midterms, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, US Election
· resolves
run_id: 4a6d100b-1689-4860-9d4a-8944739e18f6
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· TAKE_PROFIT
·
+$2.25
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
30.0% / 32.0%
move_start
25.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
6.5pp / 86.0h
shape
spike
72h range
26.5%—32.0% (Δ5.5pp)
since peak
14.5h
Price rose 6.5pp from 25.5% to 32.0% over 86.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 30.0%, down 2.0pp from peak, 14.5h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 25 → 2
quality: HIGH
tokens: 4641
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 10832 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Bernadette Wilson wins Alaska governor in 2026, NO=She loses. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 32%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline The lone Alaska-specific item is a poll showing a Democrat leading under RCV, which is a D signal (reduces Wilson’s win probability); the California polling piece is unrelated. There are no ★ DIRECT pro-Wilson developments (no Alaska polls favoring her, endorsements, or structural changes) to justify a 6.5pp rise. With news momentum slightly against YES and no resolution-adjacent catalysts, the spike looks flow-driven and partially unjustified; expect some mean reversion from the peak (already 2pp off).
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL