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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 238670a5-3deb-42d3-995f-69769318ddb2
· signal: 3af1addd
· event: Alaska Governor Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+2.25
pnl %
+4.51%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Bernadette Wilson wins Alaska governor in 2026, NO=She loses. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 32%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline The lone Alaska-specific item is a poll showing a Democrat leading under RCV, whi
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.71, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.742, "stop_price": 0.668, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.25, "side_price": 0.75, "exit_price": 0.742, "target_price": 0.742, "stop_price": 0.668, "entry_price": 0.71, "size_shares": 70.42253521126761, "pnl_pct": 4.51, "pnl_usd": 2.2535, "observed_slippage_pp": 0.8}