Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? ↗

Price rose 12.5pp from 58.5% to 71.0% over 2h (spike). Now at 71.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 57.0%, 72h range: 46.5%-71.0%] [EVR: 72h range 24.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 11 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here, as the deadline is just outside the 10-day window, but time decay will begin to matter soon. The trend is UP (+12.5pp spike), implying YES (the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting will occur after May 10) is becoming more likely. The ★DIRECT news during this period is the Trump cancellation of the US envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, with multiple context articles confirming that talks have stalled, collapsed, or been canceled, and that no new meetings are scheduled or underway. This is a concrete process signal (talks canceled, no meeting imminent), which directly supports the YES side (i.e., the next meeting will be after May 10). The move is a spike, but it is matched by a genuine, widely reported process catalyst. News momentum is INTENSIFYING, with multiple outlets confirming the breakdown and no counter-signals of imminent resumption. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event (trip canceled, talks off), with 0 counter-signals (no evidence of a new meeting scheduled before May 10). Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 29pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No rules bind against continuation—this is not a balanced mixed or reversal scenario, and the spike is justified by a concrete process event, not just echo or noise.