← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: a18e2503-7a53-41fe-9c21-2cb7a87d412e
· signal: cd01e1a7
· event: Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.49
pnl %
+0.65%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM UP — anchor→trigger: 58.5% → 71.0% over 2h, cusum=4.103. Days to resolution: 11 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here, as the deadline is just outside the 10-day window, but time decay will begin to matter soon. The trend is UP (+12.5pp spike), implying YES (the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting will occur after May 10) is becoming more likely. The
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 97 | 0.7700 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 97 | 0.8369 | 0.8400 → 0.8369 (2 lvl) | TP | $+6.52 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.77, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.71, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.06, "yes_ask": 0.99, "yes_mid": 0.525, "yes_spread_pp": 93.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.06, "walk_top_size": 26.0, "walk_filled_shares": 51.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 46.4, "walk_avg_fill": 0.0355, "walk_slippage_pp": 2.45, "side_bid_top": 0.06, "side_bid": 0.0355, "side_mid": 0.525, "fill_price": 0.0355, "fill_shares": 51.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 97.4, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.71, "entry_price": 0.77, "original_size_shares": 97.4025974025974, "fill_pnl_pct": -95.39, "fill_pnl_usd": -37.4595, "pnl_pct_mid": -31.82, "pnl_pct_top": -92.21, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -67.45, "fill_id": "3518def7-150a-48bf-bd84-f2101cf7e8e5"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.84, "yes_ask": 0.86, "yes_mid": 0.85, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.84, "walk_top_size": 67.0, "walk_filled_shares": 97.4, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.8369, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.31, "side_bid_top": 0.84, "side_bid": 0.8369, "side_mid": 0.85, "fill_price": 0.8369, "fill_shares": 97.4, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 97.4, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.71, "entry_price": 0.77, "original_size_shares": 97.4025974025974, "fill_pnl_pct": 8.69, "fill_pnl_usd": 6.5162, "pnl_pct_mid": 10.39, "pnl_pct_top": 9.09, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.19, "fill_id": "c313f65b-f049-4ef5-93a8-0228960d6c51"}