Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price fell 3.2pp from 67.5% to 64.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 64.3%.

Days to resolution: 234 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: multiple outlets report Mojtaba Khamenei visibly met Iran’s top military commander and “issued new directives,” alongside official claims he is in full health and actively guiding strategy; the trend is DOWN in NO (making YES more likely), so news and price ALIGN. Momentum looks INTENSIFYING today with a concrete, first-in-weeks publicized meeting plus directives, which in a personnel-survival frame is strong evidence he is alive and performing duties (a blocker against ouster). After clustering, there are 2 distinct underlying events: (1) the meeting/directives; (2) official health confirmation; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1, trend_stale=1, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. By strict counting, the meeting/directives constitute one ACTION-tier momentum signal toward YES, while health statements are rhetoric-tier; Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. With alignment, fresh catalyst, and ample room away from boundaries, further drift down in NO is more likely than a reversal; Remaining space: 64.3pp. Hard rule check: No NEWS-TREND conflict (Rule 1 not binding), not balanced mixed (Rule 2 not binding), no echo/plateau language or spike exhaustion (Rule 4/5 not binding), and no theta-boundary constraints.