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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 31e09a87-828d-49b3-8fa8-9fcd66b642d0
· signal: 384be424
· event: Iran leader end of 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.56
pnl %
-0.56%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 67.5% → 64.3% over 1h, cusum=-5.592. Days to resolution: 234 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: multiple outlets report Mojtaba Khamenei visibly met Iran’s top military commander and “issued new directives,” alongside official claims he is in full health and actively guiding
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 279 | 0.3580 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 279 | 0.3560 | 0.3560 → 0.3560 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-0.56 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: Conflicting reports on Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role in governance could significantly impact perceptions of his leadership stability and influence.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
BUY_NO
/ LOW
· CONTINUE
flipped & exited: fill=0.356 shares=279.3296089385475 pnl=$-0.5587
evidence news (10 items · score 8.08 )
- 2026-05-08T03:43 [Newslex Point] Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire Still In Place After Exchange Of St..
- 2026-05-08T08:26 [myKhel.com] FIFA World Cup 2026: Will Iran Participate In The Upcoming Continental Football Tournament?
- 2026-05-08T12:56 [FXStreet] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls defend 100-day SMA while momentum remains subdued | FXStreet
- 2026-05-08T14:13 [FXStreet] GBP/USD advances as Dollar slips despite solid NFP, Pound remains firm | FXStreet
- 2026-05-08T22:57 [EconoTimes] FxWirePro: GBP/NZD downtrend loses steam, remains on bearish path - EconoTimes
- 2026-05-09T00:09 [Mail Online] Loyalists apart, there were few words of support for Starmer
- 2026-05-09T03:01 [Anadolu Ajansı] US intelligence sees Iran's new supreme leader influencing war strategy: Report
- 2026-05-09T08:14 [United News of Ind] US sanctions entities over Iran's overseas military procurement networks
- 2026-05-09T08:44 [Al Arabiya English] Conflicting reports on Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s health, role in governance - Al Arabiya English
- 2026-05-09T08:44 [قناة العربية] Conflicting reports on Mojtaba Khamenei's health and role in governance
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.358, "size_usd": 100.0, "target_price": 0.407, "stop_price": 0.298, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.642, "yes_ask": 0.644, "yes_mid": 0.643, "yes_spread_pp": 0.2, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.356, "walk_top_size": 401.73, "walk_filled_shares": 279.33, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.356, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.356, "side_bid": 0.356, "side_mid": 0.357, "fill_price": 0.356, "fill_shares": 279.33, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 279.33, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[ad4af7f0] entry=BUY_NO/MEDIUM new=BUY_NO/LOW", "entry_price": 0.358, "original_size_shares": 279.3296089385475, "fill_id": "bad12a04-66ee-41f4-9b78-64ec602e8d64"}