Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 7.0pp from 28.5% to 21.5% over 10h (spike). Now at 21.5%.

Days to resolution: 56 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market has a positive action required (Abelardo de la Espriella must win), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of news is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no polling, official withdrawals, endorsements, or campaign developments directly referencing Abelardo de la Espriella’s win probability. The trend is DOWN (NO more likely), and the news is STARVED for direct signals, so the direction aligns with theta-bleed. Step 1b: The news is dominated by CONTEXT events about general political violence, threats to other candidates, and debate maneuvering, but nothing directly affecting Abelardo’s candidacy or his odds of winning. No new actors or concrete actions have emerged; the story is plateauing/fading regarding Abelardo’s prospects. Step 2: After clustering, there are 0 momentum signals (trend=0, counter=0). Remaining space: 16.5pp (from 21.5% to 5%). Step 3: Hard rules—RULE 4 (plateauing, starved) applies, but since this is a theta-bleed market and the absence of news is not a sign of weak evidence but rather lack of positive movement for YES, CONTINUE is allowed. No other hard rules bind.