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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 46d1161e-50b2-48c9-9db2-d97fff2bddba
· signal: c5d63892
· event: Colombia Presidential Election
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-1.52
pnl %
-7.59%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 28.5% → 21.5% over 10h, cusum=-4.099. Days to resolution: 56 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market has a positive action required (Abelardo de la Espriella must win), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN, so absence of news is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no polling, official withdrawals, en
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 25 | 0.7900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 25 | 0.7300 | 0.7300 → 0.7300 (1 lvl) | SL | $-1.52 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.79, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.73, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.25, "yes_ask": 0.27, "yes_mid": 0.26, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.73, "walk_top_size": 661.05, "walk_filled_shares": 25.32, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.73, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.73, "side_bid": 0.73, "side_mid": 0.74, "fill_price": 0.73, "fill_shares": 25.32, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 25.32, "target_price": 0.835, "stop_price": 0.73, "entry_price": 0.79, "original_size_shares": 25.31645569620253, "fill_pnl_pct": -7.59, "fill_pnl_usd": -1.519, "pnl_pct_mid": -6.33, "pnl_pct_top": -7.59, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.0, "fill_id": "f7800800-e41d-4f24-88aa-149d0a4c679d"}