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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? ↗
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-april-22-2026-321-831
· US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Vance
· resolves
run_id: 60330bb3-d711-4fcf-9bae-846b389a2f19
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· TAKE_PROFIT
·
+$9.79
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
81.5% / 83.5%
move_start
74.0%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
9.5pp / 4.5h
shape
spike
72h range
39.5%—90.0% (Δ50.5pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 9.5pp from 74.0% to 83.5% over 4.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 81.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 65.5%, 72h range: 39.5%-90.0%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 335 → 23
quality: HIGH
tokens: 8418
article_precursor
direct
Discussions avec l'Iran: une délégation américaine partira "bientôt" pour le Pakistan
article_thesis
direct
Iran Rejects Negotiation Under Attack: Demands End to US Blockade Before Resuming Talks
article_thesis
direct
Fate of Iran peace talks uncertain as deadline approaches for end of ceasefire
article_thesis
relevant
Iran's Pondered Peace Talks: A Diplomatic Tangle with the U.S. | Headlines
article_thesis
direct
Iran considering attending US talks in Pakistan with blockade still unresolved
article_thesis
direct
Iran considers US talks as blockade remains unresolved
article_thesis
direct
Peace talks are in doubt as the U.S. seizes an Iranian ship
article_thesis
relevant
Iran says 'no decision made' yet over whether to join second round of talks with US
article_thesis
relevant
Tehran Says 'No Decision Yet' on Joining Peace Talks as Iranian President Flags Distrust of Washington
article_thesis
relevant
Tehran says 'no plans' for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship
article_thesis
relevant
Russia urges US-Iran to keep ceasefire, continue talks: ministry
article_thesis
noise
Lebanon's Aoun says aiming to end hostilities with Israel talks
article_antithesis
relevant
Prospects For New Round Of US-Iran Talks Uncertain
article_thesis
direct
US President Donald Trump Open to Direct Talks With Iran Amid Uncertainty Over Pakistan Negotiations | LatestLY
article_precursor
relevant
Iranian sources: Tehran's decision not to participate in negotiations with Washington remains unchanged
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 14478 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by Apr 22; NO = no such meeting or only one side shows with no bilateral meeting. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=5, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=5 (priced-in: E=1, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 74% to 84%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical Divergence: Yes — Strong Divergence (D≥4) opposing an upward move. ★ DIRECT-relevant items during the spike overwhelmingly block a meeting: Iran says “no plans” to join talks (state media/Tasnim), “decision not to participate remains unchanged,” and demands lifting the US blockade before resuming talks; none of these satisfy the settlement criterion of a confirmed/underway bilateral meeting, while the lone positives (US delegation heading to Pakistan; Trump open to direct talks) don’t secure Iran’s participation. Given multiple fresh D8-style refusals/preconditions and no meeting confirmation, a 9.5pp spike looks overstated and should mean-revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
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