Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? ↗

Price fell 7.0pp from 51.5% to 44.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 44.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 54.0%, 72h range: 44.5%-72.0%] [EVR: 72h range 27.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive Trump announcement to resolve YES, and with the deadline within 90 days and a DOWN move, the absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete actions, announcements, or filings by Trump or the US government indicating an end to military operations against Iran. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming more likely, and the news aligns: there is no evidence of progress toward a YES resolution. News momentum is plateauing/fading—coverage is broad but consists entirely of CONTEXT: commentary on the war's cost, diplomatic posturing, speculation about future actions, and rhetoric from both sides, but no new process steps or operational changes. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. There are no escalation or de-escalation actions, only noise and background context. Remaining space: 44.5pp (from 44.5% to 0%). Step 3 hard rule check: No news-trend conflict, no mixed signals, no spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed supports continuation in the absence of progress. Per Principle 1 and the theta-bleed rule, the lack of direct news is itself a bearish signal for YES in a time-decay market.