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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 7b6d080d-c12c-4409-9f8a-e45a91034f0e
· signal: 60b1222e
· event: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE2 CUMULATIVE
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.69
pnl %
+0.93%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 51.5% → 44.5% over 1h, cusum=-6.347. Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive Trump announcement to resolve YES, and with the deadline within 90 days and a DOWN move, the absence of progress is bearish for YES. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete actions, announcements, or filing
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 139 | 0.5400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 139 | 0.4689 | 0.4800 → 0.4689 (2 lvl) | SL | $-9.88 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.54, "size_usd": 75.0, "target_price": 0.605, "stop_price": 0.48, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_mid": 0.515, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.48, "walk_top_size": 62.01, "walk_filled_shares": 138.89, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.4689, "walk_slippage_pp": 1.11, "side_bid_top": 0.48, "side_bid": 0.4689, "side_mid": 0.485, "fill_price": 0.4689, "fill_shares": 138.89, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 138.89, "target_price": 0.605, "stop_price": 0.48, "entry_price": 0.54, "original_size_shares": 138.88888888888889, "fill_pnl_pct": -13.17, "fill_pnl_usd": -9.875, "pnl_pct_mid": -10.19, "pnl_pct_top": -11.11, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -1.11, "fill_id": "f9429998-868c-402e-a387-34fcb430aee9"}