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Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election? ↗
will-greg-hull-win-the-2026-new-mexico-governor-republican-primary-election
· New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner · category: Elections, Governor Primary, New Mexico Primary, Politics, Primaries, Republican Primary, primary elections
· resolves
run_id: 6368cbcb-e7bc-4e8d-a2b0-e4be7ea1e895
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· STOP_LOSS
·
−$2.77
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
60.5% / 63.0%
move_start
52.5%
reversal
+2.5pp
move size / hours
10.5pp / 5.5h
shape
steady
72h range
46.5%—69.0% (Δ22.5pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 10.5pp from 52.5% to 63.0% over 5.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 60.5%, down 2.5pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 57.5%, 72h range: 46.5%-69.0%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 17 → 6
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5323
gnews_thesis
relevant
The Roundhouse Report: Haaland, Hull lead poll with plenty of undecideds - Santa Fe New Mexican
gnews_thesis
relevant
Gregg Hull reflects on tenure as RR mayor - Rio Rancho Observer Home
gnews_thesis
relevant
New Mexico Primary 2026: NM House of Representatives, District 60 - kanw.org
gnews_thesis
relevant
Rio Rancho’s longest-serving mayor passes the gavel, sets sights on governor’s race - nm.news
gnews_mechanism
relevant
Here are the candidates running for New Mexico governor - KRQE
gnews_thesis
relevant
Small businesses and universal childcare top of mind for gubernatorial candidates - KSFR
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 11642 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Gregg Hull wins the 2026 NM GOP gubernatorial primary; NO=any other Republican wins. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 52% to 63%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — election market (no theta). No Logical or Strong Divergence (there are no ★ DIRECT signals); the only fresh item is CONTEXT about a poll saying “Haaland, Hull lead” with “plenty of undecideds,” plus general candidate/biographical coverage, which does not satisfy resolution criteria (no withdrawals, rule changes, endorsements with proven vote-shift, or official results). A single, caveated poll can rationally nudge odds, but a 10.5pp climb on process-only/context news typically overshoots; with zero DIRECT catalysts, part of the rise is likely to mean-revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL