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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 12ac8a12-f239-4ab2-a198-c3cb4cd395cd
· signal: 0d966b3b
· event: New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
PHASE4 MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+11.35
pnl %
+62.50%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Gregg Hull wins the 2026 NM GOP gubernatorial primary; NO=any other Republican wins. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 52% to 63%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — election market (no theta). No Logical or Strong Divergence (there
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 45 | 0.4000 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 45 | 0.3390 | 0.3500 → 0.3390 (3 lvl) | SL | $-2.77 |
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.4, "size_usd": 18.16, "target_price": 0.45, "stop_price": 0.34, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.95, "yes_mid": 0.485, "yes_spread_pp": 93.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.05, "walk_top_size": 20.0, "walk_filled_shares": 20.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 25.4, "walk_avg_fill": 0.05, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.05, "side_bid": 0.05, "side_mid": 0.515, "fill_price": 0.05, "fill_shares": 20.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 45.4, "target_price": 0.45, "stop_price": 0.34, "entry_price": 0.4, "original_size_shares": 45.4, "fill_pnl_pct": -87.5, "fill_pnl_usd": -7.0, "pnl_pct_mid": 28.75, "pnl_pct_top": -87.5, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -29.0, "fill_id": "5fcab5f9-ad5b-4da4-b040-d817ec8e7c32"}
EXIT_PARTIAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.95, "yes_mid": 0.485, "yes_spread_pp": 93.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.05, "walk_top_size": 20.0, "walk_filled_shares": 20.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 5.4, "walk_avg_fill": 0.05, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.05, "side_bid": 0.05, "side_mid": 0.515, "fill_price": 0.05, "fill_shares": 20.0, "is_partial": true, "remaining_before": 25.4, "target_price": 0.45, "stop_price": 0.34, "entry_price": 0.4, "original_size_shares": 45.4, "fill_pnl_pct": -87.5, "fill_pnl_usd": -7.0, "pnl_pct_mid": 28.75, "pnl_pct_top": -87.5, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -29.0, "fill_id": "bda07ab5-1217-4cb5-afed-7af996bc0591"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.95, "yes_mid": 0.485, "yes_spread_pp": 93.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.05, "walk_top_size": 20.0, "walk_filled_shares": 5.4, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.05, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.05, "side_bid": 0.05, "side_mid": 0.515, "fill_price": 0.05, "fill_shares": 5.4, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 5.4, "target_price": 0.45, "stop_price": 0.34, "entry_price": 0.4, "original_size_shares": 45.4, "fill_pnl_pct": -87.5, "fill_pnl_usd": -1.89, "pnl_pct_mid": 28.75, "pnl_pct_top": -87.5, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -29.0, "fill_id": "c02ca197-be8d-4709-a545-03b9da4a2404"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_ask": 0.65, "yes_mid": 0.64, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 3, "walk_top_fill": 0.35, "walk_top_size": 13.39, "walk_filled_shares": 45.4, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.339, "walk_slippage_pp": 1.1, "side_bid_top": 0.35, "side_bid": 0.339, "side_mid": 0.36, "fill_price": 0.339, "fill_shares": 45.4, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 45.4, "target_price": 0.45, "stop_price": 0.34, "entry_price": 0.4, "original_size_shares": 45.4, "fill_pnl_pct": -15.25, "fill_pnl_usd": -2.7694, "pnl_pct_mid": -10.0, "pnl_pct_top": -12.5, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -0.1, "fill_id": "f055064f-5427-48b0-adec-bb2a67b343e7"}